Friday, 12 March 2010 11:48

Raises should make a comeback, but keep an updated resume handy.

Despite all the talk about economic recovery, you're probably still anxious about next year's job market -- worried not necessarily about your position but maybe your spouse's or your adult kids' or your best pal's.

Your concern is understandable. According to the consensus estimate from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, the jobless rate will steady in the first half of 2010, before dipping to 9.6% by year-end.

Continued high unemployment after a slump has become more common in recent years; after the last two recessions, it took two to three years for the jobless rate to return to pre-recession levels.

What's different now: Economists say the severity of this downturn means that it could take even longer for unemployment to drop below 5% as it was in 2007, if it ever does. Structural changes in industries from manufacturing to media, coupled with strong gains in productivity, are enabling companies to do more with fewer people -- perhaps permanently, says economist Sophia Koropeckyj of Moody's Economy.com.

Still, there are bright spots. You'll probably nab a raise next year, although it will be a relatively skimpy one. Nearly half of large companies froze salaries in 2009, but just 13% intend to do so in 2010, says Hewitt Associates.

Hiring plans are picking up in some hard-hit sectors: 31% of service businesses say they'll add jobs in the next six months (up from 16% in April), as do 29% of finance, insurance, and real estate firms, the National Association for Business Economics reports. And industries that held up well during the recession, such as health care, education, and technology should continue to expand in the new year.

Wild Card

A sharp rise in energy prices could hurt already fragile consumer and business spending, which in turn could prolong hiring and pay freezes at many firms.

Signs to Watch

Three months of steady growth in the average workweek should signal stronger job growth ahead. Companies have cut employee work hours so much that they will boost the number of hours worked before hiring in earnest.

The Action Plan

Don't Fly Below the Radar

Working hard and keeping your head down won't prevent you from becoming a layoff target. To secure your position and have a shot at a decent raise, you not only need to excel at what you do, you have to make sure your boss and other higher-ups notice, says executive recruiter Stephen Viscusi, author of "Bulletproof Your Job."

Seek out high-profile or cross-department assignments, actively contribute at meetings with senior colleagues, and volunteer to take on additional responsibilities -- an especially valuable tactic now, with so many fewer employees around to handle the work load.

Get Paid For Results

Raises will average just 2.7% next year -- the first time in more than 30 years that average pay hikes will fall below 3% for two years in a row, Hewitt reports. Earn a reputation as a top performer and you may nab more: The highest-rated workers will get an average boost of 4.8% in 2010, according to the latest compensation survey from Mercer, a benefits consulting firm.

If your company is among those still freezing base pay, try instead to negotiate a bonus tied to key, quantifiable company objectives: 86% of organizations have some kind of short-term incentive pay program linked to financial goals, operational performance, or customer satisfaction, Mercer notes.

Restore That Salary Reduction

Sure, a pay cut is preferable to a job cut. But if your hours were reduced or your salary slashed outright in the recession, start strategizing about when and how to get that money back.

First read the tea leaves: Have profits improved at your firm? Have layoffs stopped and hiring started? If so, the timing may be right. Prepare examples to prove you're deserving -- showing, say, you've taken on extra duties, worked longer hours, or slashed costs. Then ask your boss for a salary review.

Jump-Start Your Job Search

If you've been out of work for a while -- the average job search now takes 27 weeks vs. 19 last year -- change your tactics. Expand the options by looking at employers in different but related industries or different positions in the same field. Lower your salary expectations -- akin to dropping the price of a house if it's been on the market too long. Update your skills, says executive recruiter Kimberly Bishop, who suggests pulling job descriptions from corporate Web sites and comparing your experience with what companies are looking for. Then take a class -- you've got time, right? -- to fill in any gaps.

Be Prepared -- Just in Case

Even if your job seems secure, the prospect of double-digit unemployment should spur your Scout instincts. Take care of basics: Beef up your emergency fund, identify expenses you could cut if needed, and consider what you'd do about health insurance if you get the ax.

Update your resume and start reconnecting with folks in your professional network. Join industry forums, and seek endorsements on LinkedIn. And if a friend or colleague is laid off and turns to you for advice, assistance, or just to vent, be there for him or her. One day your pal may be in a position to recommend or hire you.

Source: http://www.yahoo.com

Friday, 12 March 2010 11:48

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors moved back into stocks on hopes that a special election in Massachusetts will take away power from Senate Democrats and make it harder for President Barack Obama to make changes to health care. The vote Tuesday to fill the seat of late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy could shift power in the Senate if Republican Scott Brown wins. That would give Republicans the 41 votes necessary to block Democratic proposals, including the health care bill. The prospect of a logjam in Washington over health care eased concerns that profits at companies like insurers and drug makers would suffer. Rising health stocks pulled the broader market higher. The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 100 points after falling 100 on Friday. Broader indexes also rose and demand for the safety of government debt waned. Meanwhile, Kraft Foods Inc.'s agreement to acquire Cadbury PLC for $18.9 billion boosted hopes that corporate dealmaking will continue to rebound. Investors see buyouts as a sign of confidence in the economy. Technology stocks got a boost after a Credit Suisse analyst raised his rating on Ciena Corp., a maker of telecommunications equipment, predicting that revenue would exceed expectations. The gains came after stocks fell Friday when JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s quarterly results fell short of expectations. U.S. markets were closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Analysts said that beyond a possible shift in plans for health care, the week's earnings reports will help chart the market's course in the coming months as companies update their expectations for the economy. The stock market has been climbing for 10 months on hopes that an easing recession would boost corporate profits. But lingering problems like high unemployment and a weak housing market have raised questions about whether the jump in stocks is premature. "This is just a critical period when we get to see the litmus test of earnings and then guidance," said Philip S. Dow, managing director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management in Minneapolis. In midafternoon trading, the Dow rose 103.69, or 1 percent, to 10,713.34. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 11.88, or 1.1 percent, to 1,147.91, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 29.18, or 1.3 percent, to 2,317.17. Brett Hryb, a portfolio manager with MFC Global Investment Management in Toronto, said a defeat of the health bill could help some companies but that a win by Brown would not necessarily make that certain. "It's not a slam dunk by any means," he said. Among health stocks, insurers Aetna Inc. rose $1.29, or 4.1 percent, to $32.65 and UnitedHealth Group Inc. rose $1.17, or 3.5 percent, to $34.92. Pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc. rose 43 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $19.92. Shares of Cadbury rose $3.09, or 6 percent, to $54.99. Kraft fell 32 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $29.26. Ciena rose $1.20, or 10.3 percent, to $12.83. Citigroup Inc. rose 10 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $3.52 after reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $7.6 billion mostly tied to repayment of $20 billion in government bailout money. The company said it is starting to see some stabilizing in the number of mortgage and credit card loans that are past due. Earnings reports are due this week from Bank of America Corp., eBay Inc., General Electric Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Google Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. International Business Machines Corp. reports after the closing bell Tuesday. Analysts said investors are hunting for clues about whether the market will continue its run in 2010 or begin to sputter if the economy doesn't show more signs it is strengthening. "Everybody is looking for that catalyst that is going to take us higher," said Anthony Conroy, managing director and head trader for BNY ConvergEx Group. He contends that the market will find strength from companies that surprise investors by reporting stronger profits. But Hryb said the run in stocks since March has left stocks with rich valuations and that even with big earnings stocks could be getting pricey. "It is a tug-of-war between the growth in the earnings and what people are willing to pay for those earnings," Hryb said. Bond prices fell, pushing their yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.71 percent from 3.68 percent late Friday. The dollar mostly rose against other major currencies. Gold advanced, while crude oil rose 65 cents to $78.65 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. More than two stocks rose for every one that fell at the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 590.4 million shares, compared with 864.1 million traded at the same point Friday. Volume was heavy Friday in part because of the expiration of options contracts. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 8.61, or 1.4 percent, to 644.64. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.8 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.8 percent. Augstums reported from Charlotte, N.C.

By Tim Paradis and Ieva M. Augstums, AP Business Writers , On Tuesday January 19, 2010, 2:30 pm EST

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com